New risks to higher commodity prices and war growth 2022
Bangladesh’s economy is on the path to a strong recovery after overcoming the Corona crisis. But rising commodity prices in the international market and the Russia-Ukraine war are putting this growth at risk. Even then, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be 7.4 percent in the current 2021-22 fiscal year. The World Bank’s report, ‘South Asia Economic Focus Spring 2022: Reshaping Norms: A New Way Forward’, talks about Bangladesh’s growth. The report was released on Wednesday. On this occasion, the World Bank organized an online press conference yesterday afternoon.
The multinational donor agency says Kovid has hindered the country’s economic prosperity. However, readymade garment exports are still in a strong position. If it is possible to maintain the market share of garment exports in different markets including Europe, then it will be possible to achieve the desired GDP growth in the current financial year. In addition, the World Bank has predicted that GDP growth could be 7.9 percent in the next fiscal year.
According to the World Bank forecast, India could have the highest growth rate of 7% in South Asia. The Maldives is expected to grow at 7.8 percent, Bhutan at 4.4 percent, Nepal at 3.6 percent, and Pakistan at 4.3 percent. The World Bank has forecast 2.4 percent growth in Sri Lanka, which is facing an economic crisis. No growth is forecast for Afghanistan this year. According to the World Bank, inflation in Bangladesh was 7.2 percent in February. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war and rising commodity prices in the international market, the current account deficit is widening and inflation is rising.
Speaking at a press conference on Bangladesh’s growth, Hans Timmer, the World Bank’s chief economist for South Asia, said Bangladesh is on the path to strong growth at the moment. Bangladesh has done well in Corona too. Asked whether the Russia-Ukraine war would have any impact on Bangladesh’s economy, he said Bangladesh does not have strong ties with Russia and Ukraine in terms of trade and foreign investment. So it is less likely to have a direct effect. However, there may be indirect effects. For example, the commodity market. Depending on where the world market for dairy commodities is heading.
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